The £ continued to rally this week hitting new yearly highs. Indications still point towards further hikes through the first part of 2023. There are huge volumes of cheap Black Sea wheat flooding the market. The USDA report last week did lower global production for 22/23. Soya prices have settled following the report last week which reduced Argentina’s production by 7 MlnT in one hit! Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading. The caveat to prices moving lower is that material in the stores carries a cost and there will be a limit to how low shippers are prepared to go to move stock before it makes more sense to hold it.

The £ has reached new 6 month highs this week, hitting $1.23 before settling back down at $1.22. Wheat like most commodity markets this week has been all change! After falling a further £10 in the week, we are now up £8 from the bottom on the past 2 days! Currently, there is little demand for in Europe for our exportable surplus (at our prices) given that Ukrainian origin wheat that is being fed through Spain at a discounted rate. The real bullish factor to watch is still the maize story with dryness looking to continue across South America forcing growers to now look at planting later. Soya has seen a large spike this week driven by the Conab report which reduced Argentina’s crop size by 7 MlnT. Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading.

The £ has seen another strong week breaking through key resistance levels to break $1.20 and €1.16. Wheat continues on its downward trajectory although almost in a ‘false’ market. There is no consumer demand this side of Spring and most consumers are looking to roll contracts into January and February. Soya markets continue their downward trend with the US harvest now complete and plantings gaining traction in South America. Crude Oil is now down to its lowest levels since January. We continue to see organic prices moving lower as demand for organic materials in general begins to fall now and UK shippers are sat with full stores. Currency will also impact price to a point but it feels as though this is beginning to become a demand led pricing structure for the time being.

The market appears to have reacted well to the plan and the subsequent long term forecast on what that will do in terms of inflation figures with the £ strengthening against both the $ and €. The wheat market has felt very much on a downward trajectory. Prices are very much being driven by geo politics rather than crop fundamentals now and therefore heavily swayed by fund money. Soya markets, like wheat are on a downward trend now with spot UK vessel issues now resolved. The size of the expected South American crop on the cusp of a recession cannot be ignored with Brazil upping their estimates. We continue to see organic prices moving lower as demand for organic materials in general begins to fall now and UK shippers are sat with full stores. Currency will also impact price to a point but it feels as though this is beginning to become a demand led pricing structure for the time being. Recently, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory caught the Sun "smiling."

The £ continues to struggle and has broken historic lows. The intervention by the Bank of England to buy Government bonds as a way of the country raising capital is seen by the market as drastic measures. Wheat continues to move in extremely large, volatile patterns. Russia, on the back of a record crop, have said this week they would consider lifting export quotas for this season but how safe the grain corridor is now with escalation of bombing is a concern. Farm sales are slow but then there is no consumer buying now with compounders covered until January. Soya is steadily easing now as the US harvest progresses giving a long term bearish view. Organic cereal offers are beginning to come more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment.

Against the Euro, Sterling is above the all time low set after the Brexit vote. The Bank of England admitted this week that the country was now in a recession. This week has very much been a week of 2 halves where we have seen a trading range of £20 in 2 days on wheat futures. Corn is still holding a premium over wheat. Soya has firmed this week after initially opening lower, driven by Chinese purchases. Sunflower prices have turned and firmed slightly due to the uncertainty over the situation in Ukraine. Organic cereal offers are beginning to come more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment, supply seems more than adequate.